Forecasting in November is always a struggle

As chief meteorologist for WSB-TV for 42 years, when November came around, it was always time to buy Excedrin. Forecasting – or should I say – attempted forecasting can bring on BIG headaches!

During November, we can have hurricanes, ice and snow, record heat, severe thunderstorms, and wicked cold. The transition from autumn to early winter is quite noticeable in north Georgia.  Average high temperatures fall from the upper 60s early in the month to the upper 50s by month’s end. In Atlanta, that means highs dropping from 68 degrees to 59 degrees. Overnight lows become crisp in places like Ellijay where lows run from around 44 degrees to 38 degrees. In the higher mountains, it can be 10 degrees colder than that. November is also one of the wettest months of the year, averaging 4-6 inches of rain.

One of the biggest perks of the year is, of course, the fall color, which should continue through Thanksgiving. It is always a fun day hiking mountain trails or visiting some of the fall festivals.

It can get very cold in November. We even had a little bit of a surprise here back in the year 2000. Many of you will know doubt remember the winter storm that brought snow and sleet to us.  Many in north Georgia saw 1-3 inches with Fannin County reporting 4-plus inches. I remember distinctly the issues they had in Floyd County. There were so many accidents from the ice that had formed on bridges and overpasses. This type of wintry weather is EXTREMELY unusual.

While we had snow in 2000, the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida in 2009, brought 4-9 inches of rain on November the 10th. That fall was the wettest on record for Atlanta, Athens, and Columbus.

Like now, November 2009 had us in another drought. The spoil and reservoir declines were historic. Lake Lanier dropped nearly 5 feet that November, the largest one month drop in more than 5 years.  The Savannah River Basin entered Drought State 3 by early November with lake levels reaching historic lows.

November is also when we enter our second severe storm season. November 2010 we had a major tornado outbreak, including a rare EF2 in Buford that caused massive damage. In 1992 a system that brought more than 100 tornadoes nation-wide, brought dozens of tornadoes to Georgia.

So basically, November is THE month in Georgia where anything goes. Hurricanes, flash floods, severe storms, tornadoes, hail, powerful straight line winds, snow, and even ice. Let’s not forget the kind of temperature drops we can see. It can go from the 70s to the 40s following the passage of a stout cold front. Yes, November can bring on the headaches!

Fall Photo: courtesy Georgia Forestry Commission