November 2024 rain outlook.
From late September into early October, I felt like I was in the Twilight Zone. For the past 10 years I have been reading the latest information and looking at the climate change models. The dire predictions concerning the increase in intensity due to record ocean heat came to fruition.
When a tropical depression forms it can take 48 hours to a week to develop into a hurricane. Hurricane Helene did that in 12 hours! Hurricane Milton went from a tropical storm to a CAT 5 hurricane in that same time frame. I was in contact with my weather colleagues all over the Southeast and we were all absolutely stunned.
In fact, Hurricane Helene was the strongest storm to ever directly hit the big bend area of Florida.
Record warm sea surface temperatures allowed these two mega storms to intensify rapidly. Milton’s winds topped 180 miles per hour. These storms moved across extremely warm sea surface temperatures, fueling their destructiveness. In addition to the shallow layer of warm water in the Gulf, they moved over the “loop current.” The loop current in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is also extremely warm. Its warm water is not just on the surface, it runs deep. It’s basically rocket fuel for a hurricane.
Both storms moved over the loop current. Ingesting that kind of tropical moisture also brought catastrophic rainfall. Totals of 15 inches or more brought devastation the likes of which no one has ever seen before.
In Florida from Milton, rainfall was intense. Many areas picked up their entire normal October rainfall in 30 minutes time. At one point, it was raining four inches per hour! The St. Petersburg area saw nearly 19 inches of rain in eight hours!
After the storms were over, all these conspiracy theories were popping up on the internet. People claiming the government was seeding the storms to make them worse so it could steal land. Others saying the storms were actually being created and then steered with remote control to wipe out towns. Rumors we could control and manipulate hurricanes were being posted all over social media. The worst part was, people were believing this gibberish. In fact, a colleague who is the chief at an Alabama TV station received death threats, demanding the government stop making these terrible storms. Trying to explain to people that what they were saying could not possibly happen, was futile.
Anyway, let’s look ahead. Hurricane season ends this month. The November outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is for above average temperatures to continue (we will see brief cold snaps too) along with below average rainfall. The average daily high is 61 and the average daily low is 43. Most days however, with this outlook, will likely be in the upper 60s to mid 70s most days.
Hope all enjoy the beautiful fall color and I hope you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday. Say a little prayer for our neighbors so hard hit by these terrible storms.
Graphic: courtesy NWS
